Thursday, December 20, 2012
Friday, December 14, 2012
Amidst moving over the weekend and a packed work schedule this past week, I’d barely had a chance to indulge my penchant for keeping up with latest news and pursuing report releases. Luckily, a colleague passed along the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Office release of the “Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment.”
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Executive SummarySix themes emerge from a workshop that discussed potential new climate products and services from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that could serve needs in the national security community. These themes are the following:1. Prepare and respond to climate variability and adapt to climate change.2. Develop climate change predictions endorsed by the federal government.3. Support national security with NOAA climate products.4. Move from data access to data application.5. Sustain cooperation.6. Consider emerging product areas.The first theme addresses published statements that imply adaptation to climate variability will help to adapt to climate change. This is not always true. A counterexample is coastal adaptation now in an area that a rising sea level will inundate soon. Greater clarity can help ensure appropriate allocation of adaptation resources. This issue is important to the national defense community both because of its large investment in infrastructure and possible compromise of continuity of operations.The second theme responds to the lack of any official federal statement of what projected climate changes agencies are obliged to consider in adaptation plans. Such plans are required by laws and regulations that do not stipulate which potential changes to consider. This disconnect could compromise national security planning.NOAA produces an official forecast of climate for the United States that extends to 1 year in the future. Forecasts are available from NOAA international desks for areas outside the United States. Theme 3 proposes a dialogue on greater use of NOAA products outside the United States.New software, new media, and new hardware offer opportunities for NOAA to develop better ways to access data that would nurture greater use. Users also need tools (“apps”) for deeper and more efficient analysis of existing data. Theme 4 shows how NOAA could partner with the national security community to address both of these opportunities.Effective use of the climate products and services NOAA now provides can be enhanced through a program that facilitates more productive interaction with the national security community. Such interaction can identify, develop, and apply useful products and services. Theme 5 lays the groundwork for effective partnership dealing with the long-term challenges that climate change poses to US national security.Theme 6 describes several opportunities for early focus. Two are ripe for early action. First, NOAA could use the existing official long-term forecast to develop predictions of active layer thickness in permafrost within Alaska. This information can help protect energy supplies and improve planning for military mobility in Arctic regions. Second, NOAA could work in cooperation with the Naval Oceanographic Office to calculate estimates of tidal range with higher sea level. Such information informs the vulnerability of coastal military installations.These six opportunities could allow NOAA to better serve the needs of the country and NOAA’s mission to “understand and predict changes in climate.” Together, they could help the national security community respond to challenges from climate variability and climate change.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Thursday, November 1, 2012
|Courtesy of TheAtlantic.com|
Storm damage usually comes from two sources and Sandy offered these in spades: high winds toppled trees and power lines or hurtled objects at dangerous speeds, and excessive rainfall saturated the ground and overwhelmed storm water systems. Rainfall up to 8” was forecast and West Virginia braced for up to 3’ of snow. But Sandy added a third punch that was equally damaging and disruptive: storm surge.
When a hurricane hits, the intense low-pressure system brings counter-clockwise winds (in the Northern Hemisphere) that pile up ocean water at the coast. This is the storm surge. Higher winds make for larger surge. Long duration winds make for a larger surge. And a long fetch (the distance over which the winds blow) makes for a larger surge. Sandy offered all three. A huge, slow-moving low-pressure storm barreling straight into the coast for several days over the vast North Atlantic with winds exceeding 90 miles per hour.
What else could you ask for in a ‘perfect storm?’ It turns out Sandy offered more. Sandy’s surge did its greatest damage at the time of high tide in New York City. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts tides for about 3,000 locations along the coastlines of the US including seven in New York harbor. The station at The Battery is a primary location where the harmonics used in these models are calculated directly from historical records. The tidal forecast at the time of Sandy’s landfall looks like this (Figure 1). Just as winds were piling up water, the tides rose too.
|Figure 1. Calculated tidal range at The Battery in New York harbor during the storm surge of hurricane Sandy.|
Figure 1 reminds us that tides vary. In this case the second tide was not quite as high and did not contribute as much to the damage. These variations are predictable results of the gravitational influence of the sun and moon. I say predictable in the sense that NOAA uses the record of how tidal elevation varies with time to make the predictions. Few attempt the torturous task of actually calculating the tidal influence of the sun and moon (let alone the other planets) because it is so very complicated.
Scientists give names (tidal terminology is nicely explained here) to the different tidal extremes such as the neap tides and spring tides. The latter give larger tidal ranges (and higher high tides) since the sun and moon are aligned and their gravitational effect is additive. So we can talk about ‘higher high tides’ such as spring tides.
And tidal range is complicated by another factor, the configuration of the basin where the tides occur. Everyone is familiar with this effect if you’ve ever seen pictures of the tidal range in the Bay of Fundy. There the tidal range is the largest in the world and can reach 50 feet. New York is fortunate in comparison!
But that brings me to the interesting effect of climate change and what things might be like when we get the next ‘hundred year storm.’
|Figure 2. Change in mean tide (cm) in the North Sea from a sea level rise of 50 centimeters.|
Science has not yet studied this very much so we are a long way from knowing what the effect will look like in the case of New York City but one study that was done in the North Sea (Figure 2) suggests that a 50 cm rise in sea level (much less than that now considered by the US National Research Council) could change the range of the high tide by as much at 10cm.This is a big deal when your house is within a foot of mean sea level.
Scientists thought that planning for the worst case of coastal flooding required you to consider the worst-case storm surge, occurring at highest high tide. And if you wanted to get an idea of the worst case in the future you needed to add one more component: sea level rise. Now we must add another unknown that is far more difficult to understand; how will the extreme tides change as the sea level rises and changes the configuration of basins?
All of this science is little consolation to those who have lost loved ones or had to abandon their homes in Manhattan or elsewhere along the East Coast of the US this week. But let’s hope our preparations for what is to come will help prevent even worse losses in future.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
|Los Angeles' visible effects of a CO2 dome|
Saturday, August 25, 2012
|USDA's running tab of states and counties experiencing drought conditions.|
|Complexities of climate change. Source: IPCC 2007|
Monday, August 13, 2012
|Credit: DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC and |
Allen, NASA Earth Observatory